As we enter the 2021 spring season, it is only natural to pause and reflect on how far we’ve come since the shutdown in March 2020. It seems like just yesterday when people were ordered to stay at home. Businesses were shuttered. Schools were closed. Restaurants were limited to drive-through. Wave after wave of layoffs were announced. Uncertainty filled the air.
“We became very disconnected from one another and thus had very little sense of what our economy was doing. We all felt in the dark,” said Blake Chatelain, President and CEO of Red River Bank. Out of the darkness comes light—the LSUA Cenla Economic Dashboard.
The chancellor agreed the need for this information was critical. He asked Dr. Randall Dupont, then Chair of the Department of Business Administration, if the department could develop and publish an economic dashboard for our region. “Dupont responded immediately,” said Coreil, and within six days the first issue of the Cenla Economic Dashboard was published. Since that time, the LSUA Department of Business has expanded to the College of Business and Dr. Dupont has been promoted to Dean of the College—a decision that has paid significant dividends to LSUA’s business students and also to the larger business community.
The first issue was only 10 pages and published April 13, 2020, just one month after the shutdown. It focused on mobility in Central Louisiana, with social distancing scores for various parishes, the number of COVID cases, unemployment claims, and the impact on job openings. The impact of COVID on consumer spending was paramount in everyone’s mind. So the second issue on April 20, 2020 included sales tax revenue for Rapides, Alexandria, and Pineville, with tax revenue serving as a proxy for consumer spending. Travel was expected to be hit hard by the stay-at-home order, so vehicle sales tax revenue and hotel occupancy tax data were added as well.
The April 20, 2020 issue published a Brookings Institution study on the vulnerability of metro areas (MSA) in the U.S. based on their share of “at risk” industries. MSAs considered highly vulnerable had a large share of employment in industries at risk of layoffs, such as oil and gas, transportation, travel arrangements, leisure and hospitality, and employment services. Looking back, the study proved remarkably accurate. Of the 380 metro areas in the U.S., Houma-Thibodaux ranked the most vulnerable in the state and eighth most vulnerable in the nation, with New Orleans and Lafayette ranked second and third statewide. Alexandria ranked the least vulnerable in Louisiana and in the bottom 10% of vulnerability nationwide.
For the first three months, the Dashboard was published twice a month before going monthly in July. By May 2020, the full impact of the pandemic could be seen for the first time in the sales tax data. Consumer activity in March 2020 was reflected in April tax collections, which was available in May. Although residents were under the stay-at-home order, consumer spending was down only 6% in Rapides, with hotel occupancy showing the largest decline. Initial unemployment claims peaked in early April and remained high throughout the month, while continued claims rose steadily. Employment in accommodation and food services, healthcare, retail, and construction sectors were hardest hit. By late-April, 29,000 in Central Louisiana had filed for initial unemployment benefits and 17,000 had continued claims.
The May 2020 Dashboard reported worsening mobility and social distancing scores in Cenla according to Google, Apple, and Unacast as cases of COVID-19 continued to rise in Central Louisiana. Initial unemployment claims were trending downward from the peak in early April. Sales tax data for Avoyelles, Evangeline, and St. Landry were added to the Dashboard as well as housing data for the Alexandria market. Small businesses in Louisiana remained optimistic, however, according to a Small Business Pulse Survey by the U.S. Census. Thirty-two percent of small businesses in Louisiana expected recovery in 2 to 3 months compared to 24% nationwide. Accounting for the optimism, perhaps, was the fact that 48% of Louisiana small businesses had received assistance from the Payroll Protection Program compared to 38% nationally.
The June issues gave the first look at April unemployment data. Of the 280,000 unemployed statewide, 5,700 were in Alexandria. Alexandria’s unemployment rate more than doubled in two months, standing at 9.9% in April, compared to 4.5% in February. Nevertheless, it was the lowest rate among the metropolitan areas of the state. At the time, New Orleans had an unemployment rate of 19%, Baton Rouge 13%, and Lafayette and Shreveport 13%. The June issue also gave the first full impact of the pandemic on consumer spending. Sales activity in April 2020, the first full month of the stay-at-home order, was reported in May tax collections and made available in the June issue. Vehicles sales were impacted the most, down 48% from March 2020 and down 33% from a year earlier. Surprisingly, consumer spending was down only 7% in Rapides, most likely the result of stimulus spending.
By July 2020, the economy was improving and the Dashboard became a monthly publication targeting a mid-month release date. Each issue now averages 70 to 75 pages, a far cry from the 10 to 13 pages in the beginning. Most topics have remained the same since then. However, the Dashboard’s content changes to reflect the needs of the community. For example, the focus on COVID-19 has shifted from cases to vaccinations and new business growth is being monitored. Currently, data on online spending in Rapides is being gathered and analyzed.
Looking back over the past year, Chatelain says he is thankful LSUA stepped up to fix the problem of missing data on the local economy. “Today, I think this Dashboard is one of the best and most comprehensive ones that I have seen. It has shed new light on the activity occurring in our region and helps all of us make more informed decisions,” he said.
“Chamber member businesses and industries report that the Dashboard is a valuable tool for assessment, response and planning purposes during the pandemic and for the recovery period. It continues to be helpful for the Chamber and other economic development organizations in helping us to best allocate our time and resources,” Randolph added.
For more information about the Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Dupont at rdupont@lsua.edu.